Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?

2.3kṀ11k

resolved Jan 3

100%48%

The initial Jan 31st Metaculus user prediction, except Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? =99.999%

1.0%

The initial Jan 31st Metaculus user prediction

The Manifold probability averaged over the day of the 31st (Pacific Time)

0.6%

50% on everything

0.7%

The highest probability option in this market other than this prediction and "other". (Resolves NO due to possible self-reference)

12%

The average of the top three non-meta, non-other options in this market.

The Manifold probability averaged over the day of the 31st (Pacific Time), averaged with the initial Metaculus user prediction.

The initial Jan 31st Metaculus user prediction, but adjusted for the overall average over/underconfidence from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/

Zvi's predictions https://twitter.com/TheZvi/status/1743282911699141066 (predictions entered into Metaculus)

1.1%

The initial Jan 31st Metaculus user prediction, except Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? =0.001%

Jack's predictions https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/predictions-2024

3%Other

There is now a topic with a bunch of mirrored questions from the 2024 ACX prediction contest on Metaculus. This question asks what strategy for predicting these questions will get the best Brier score on all binary questions in this topic as of January 31st.

User submissions are valid, with a few caveats:

It must be somewhat reasonable to compute the prediction on January 31st.
Submissions must be described in 240 characters or less.
New submissions after the 31st will not be accepted (I will close the market on the 31st, disable new submissions, and then reopen).
Referencing other predictions is allowed, as long as there is provably no way that it could lead to a paradox.

If there is a tie for first I will resolve to % equally among the winners

I suggest an adversarial mindset.

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