Will William MacAskill win the bet he places on this question?

Question

Question resolves positively if William MacAskill wins the bet that he places on this question. Question resolves negatively if William MacAskill loses the bet that he places on this question.

In the event of paradox, I will reach out to logician Graham Priest to adjudicate.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 61% chance (9 traders, as of Mar 12, 2024).