Where x is the probability at close (interpreted as a number between 0 and 1), as shown by the UI.
See here for more info.
Apr 5, 2:10pm: Chaos Theory: This market resolves to 3.56995x(1-x) → Chaos Theory: This market resolves to 3.56995*x*(1-x)
@Odoacre This is the lowest parameter where the map becomes chaotic. See the wikipedia page linked in the description for more.
@TobyBusickWarner The market will resolve to a probability. So if you hold a single YES share at the end it will be worth 3.56995*x*(1-x).
@TobyBusickWarner I think it resolves to PROB the nearest whole percent of the formula. So if it were to close at the current 71% market value, the formula gives 0.7350527… and it would resolve to 73%
@deagol sorry I think that would resolve to 74% due to rounding, not 73% (unless @BoltonBailey decides it’s the truncated whole percent?)
@FlorisvanDoorn The reward is just a parabola. I was thinking there was some potential for people to try to calculate iterates of the function to get an advantage by preempting other trades, but in retrospect, I don't think this is very likely.
@FlorisvanDoorn I should probably redo this and try to think of resolution criteria that make the market strategies actually depend on whether the map is chaotic or not. Maybe one relatively simple way could be to have the market close at a random time and let the payout be f(price 1 hour before close)
@BoltonBailey Also the first "x" in the question was meant as a variable, not a multiplication sign. Hopefully that goes without saying.