Chaos Theory n: resolves to logistic map iterated to the number of traders+1
17
350Ṁ1223
resolved Apr 17
Resolved as
91%

In a similar vein as my very first markets self-resolving to f(mkt), a couple of thought-provoking attempts at inducing theoretical chaos were made by @BoltonBailey, however I think no real chaos can ensue without the iterative recurrence relation characteristic of the logistic map and other more famous chaotic mappings such as Mandelbrot and Julia sets in the complex plane. This attempt aims to correct that. Thanks, Bolton, for the inspiration!

This market resolves to PROB=ROUND( x_(n+1), 2) i.e. the closest integer percent to x_(n+1) = (p+3) x_n (1-x_n), the (n+1)-th iteration of the logistic map's recurrence relation,

where n = the number of unique traders at close (as seen in the market info pane accessible through the top-right [•••] button) and,

the initial iteration x_0 (read as x subindex zero) = p, the full-precision market probability value at close, as obtained through the API or anyone's web browser inspector (this is how I'll get it). Note this same p appears as part of the (p+3) parameter factor of the logistic map's recurrence above, limiting it within the region of the map shown here on the right of the red line:

I'm not sure how traders will try to figure this one out, but one thing I'm almost sure is, the higher the price and number of traders, the more chaotic (yet still deterministic) it should be. Have fun!

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