Boklam avatar
Boklam
closed Feb 1
In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
7%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*. I find this rather hard to believe.

What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?

I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.

* More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947

Close date updated to 2028-01-25 11:38 pm

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 10:47 am

Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:00 am

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Boklam avatar
Boklam

Vote in the new market! It will stay open for the next five years, so when Doomsday comes y'all can make some mana off it!

Boklam avatar
Boklam

I'm reopening this to close Jan. 25, 2028, when it will resolve. If any of you NO voters (there were no YES voters) feel this is unfair to you, let me know and we can discuss. ( @MarcusAbramovitch I'm looking at you here, it kinda looks like you deliberately waited until the last second)

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchis predicting NO at 1%

I think the proper thing to do here would be resolver the market and make a new one with your close date. Changing it now shift things too much

Boklam avatar
Boklam

@MarcusAbramovitch OK, fair. I closed the market (I assume that's what you meant) and will resolve it Jan. 25, 2028.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchis predicting NO at 1%

@Boklam No. I mean to resolve it now. I mean, this way I can't even exit my position. I read the question as if Doomsday will have happened by the close date.

Closing the market now doesn't allow me to exit my position with the updated resolve date (which I would like to get out of)

Boklam avatar
Boklam

@MarcusAbramovitch Since you're online right now, how about I reopen it and you exit your position?

The headline question is about five years, and it's not really right to resolve NO until the thing has a chance to happen...

Boklam avatar
Boklam

@Boklam It's open for the next six minutes. I suggest you exit.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchsold Ṁ2,000 of NO

@Boklam Done. Thanks

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King

"Does Manifold think a catastrophe is coming" is a very different question from "does the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists think a catastrophe is coming".

Boklam avatar
Boklam

@IsaacKing Not sure I agree. I would love to make a real-money prediction market and invite BAS to put their money where their mouth is.