The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*. I find this rather hard to believe.
What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
* More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
Close date updated to 2028-01-25 11:38 pm
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 10:47 am
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 11:00 am
Vote in the new market! It will stay open for the next five years, so when Doomsday comes y'all can make some mana off it!
I think the proper thing to do here would be resolver the market and make a new one with your close date. Changing it now shift things too much
@Boklam No. I mean to resolve it now. I mean, this way I can't even exit my position. I read the question as if Doomsday will have happened by the close date.
Closing the market now doesn't allow me to exit my position with the updated resolve date (which I would like to get out of)
"Does Manifold think a catastrophe is coming" is a very different question from "does the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists think a catastrophe is coming".