Background

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 established significant tax credits for clean energy initiatives, including:

• Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar and other renewable energy projects

• Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind and other renewable energy generation

• Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits

• Credits for energy-efficient home improvements

• Incentives for clean hydrogen and carbon capture

These tax credits are statutory (passed by Congress) rather than established by executive order, meaning they cannot be eliminated by presidential action alone. Many of these credits have gained bipartisan support, particularly in Republican districts where they have created jobs and economic benefits.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by January 20, 2029 (the end of Trump's current term), the core clean energy tax credits established under the Biden administration remain substantially intact, regardless of any attempts by the current administration to rebrand or take credit for them, meaning:

• The majority (ie 3+ of the 5 listed) of the IRA's clean energy tax credits remain in effect without significant reduction in value or scope

• No legislation has been signed that repeals or substantially weakens these credits

This market will resolve to NO if:

• Legislation is passed and signed that repeals or substantially weakens the majority of these tax credits

• Administrative actions effectively prevent access to these credits despite their continued legal existence

In the event Trump remains in office beyond January 20, 2029 and the majority of these tax credits remain in effect, this market will be extended.

Considerations

• Trump has historically favored fossil fuels over renewable energy and has expressed skepticism about climate policies

• A growing number of House Republicans support preserving clean energy tax credits due to economic benefits in their districts

• Trump may attempt to modify certain credits (like EV credits) while maintaining others (like carbon capture)

• Congressional support will be crucial for any changes to these statutory tax credits