Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly threatens to impose new regulations specifically targeting Tesla Inc. The threat must be verifiable through reputable news sources or official statements. If no such threat is made by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In early June 2025, a public dispute between Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump emerged, leading to significant financial repercussions for Tesla. The conflict began when Musk criticized Trump's tax legislation, prompting Trump to threaten the termination of government contracts with Musk's companies. This led to a 14% drop in Tesla's stock, erasing approximately $150 billion in market value. (reuters.com) Additionally, Trump has expressed intentions to eliminate electric vehicle subsidies and lower emission standards, which could adversely affect Tesla's revenue streams from regulatory credits. (business-standard.com)

Considerations

• Regulatory Environment: The evolving political landscape and potential policy changes under Trump's influence could impact Tesla's operations and financial performance.

• Market Volatility: Investors should be aware of the potential for increased volatility in Tesla's stock price due to political developments and public statements from influential figures.

• Verification Sources: For the market to resolve to "Yes," any threats made by Trump must be documented by credible news outlets or official communications.

  Resolution criteria

  This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly threatens to impose new regulations specifically targeting Tesla Inc. The threat must be verifiable through reputable news sources or official statements. If no such threat is made by the end of 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

  Background

  In early June 2025, a public dispute between Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump emerged, leading to significant financial repercussions for Tesla. The conflict began when Musk criticized Trump's tax legislation, prompting Trump to threaten the termination of government contracts with Musk's companies. This led to a 14% drop in Tesla's stock, erasing approximately $150 billion in market value. (moneyweek.com) Additionally, Trump has expressed intentions to eliminate electric vehicle subsidies and lower emission standards, which could adversely affect Tesla's revenue streams from regulatory credits. (business-standard.com)

  Considerations

  • Regulatory Environment: The evolving political landscape and potential policy changes under Trump's influence could impact Tesla's operations and financial performance.

  • Market Volatility: Investors should be aware of the potential for increased volatility in Tesla's stock price due to political developments and public statements from influential figures.

  • Verification Sources: For the market to resolve to "Yes," any threats made by Trump must be documented by credible news outlets or official communications.