Background

The question of China's responsibility for COVID-19 and potential compensation remains contentious. Several US government agencies, including the Department of Energy and FBI, have supported the lab-leak theory, though there is no scientific consensus. Previous attempts to hold China financially accountable have faced significant diplomatic and practical challenges, with China consistently rejecting such claims and characterizing them as "origin-tracing terrorism."

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if before the 2026 US midterm elections:

• A formal request for compensation related to COVID-19 costs is made by the US federal government to China, OR

• The US Congress passes legislation demanding payment from China for COVID-19 related costs that is signed into law by the President

The market will resolve NO if:

• No formal request or legislation is made before the 2026 midterm elections

• Only individual states or local governments make such requests

• Only unofficial statements or rhetoric about China paying for COVID are made without formal action

• Update 2025-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The federal judge ruling likely qualifies for a YES resolution as follows:

  • The ruling (imposing a $24 billion penalty on China) is interpreted as equivalent to a formal request for compensation related to COVID-19 costs from the US federal government to China.