According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros:

https://infogram.com/ct_report-homicide-1hmr6g7pmkyqo6n

https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

Resolved based on the CCJ’s 2026 report, published after the 2026 midterm elections.

Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.

Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Biden doesn’t win.

Biden has made claims that his administration can and has reduced violent crime, most recently during the 2024 State of the Union address.

As summarized by Politifact:

Touting his 2022 American Rescue Plan Act as "the largest investment in public safety ever," Biden pointed to the 2023 homicide rate: "Last year, the murder rate saw the sharpest decrease in history. Violent crime fell to one of its lowest levels in more than 50 years. But we have more to do."

More commentary on Biden’s claim here:

https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/mar/08/biden-2024-state-of-the-union-address/

More information about Trump’s counter claims in this parallel market: