If Trump wins, will the US homicide rate decrease?

Question

According to a report by the Council on Criminal Justice, peak in 2023 was 1.8 per 100,000 population, averaged across 18 metros:

https://infogram.com/ct_report-homicide-1hmr6g7pmkyqo6n

https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/

Resolved based on the CCJ’s 2026 report, published after the 2026 midterm elections.

Market closes just before the 2026 midterms.

Update 14 Mar 24: This market resolves NA if Trump doesn’t win.

Trump claims that his plan to deport immigrants will reduce violent crime. According to this POV, Democrats are soft on immigration and crime. The rhetoric has shifted but the core message has been the same throughout his political career.

Here’s Politifact’s summary of a 2020 Trump reelection campaign ad:

On-screen text references Trump’s presumptive opponent in the presidential race, saying, "Joe Biden's supporters are fighting to defund police departments," "violent crime has exploded," and "you won't be safe in Joe Biden's America."

More about Trump’s claims and arguments here:

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jul/08/ad-watch-fact-checking-trump-campaigns-defunding-p/

For Biden’s opposing position, see this parallel market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/BlueDragon/if-biden-wins-will-the-us-homicide)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 91% chance (30 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).