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Upgraded this from Basic even though it hasn't been popular because I like it--it gets at some interesting facets of the illegal border crossings debates.

Moving the close date to Oct 1 to reflect that this market has always been based on numbers for the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years.

The numbers for 2024 (orange) have been trending incredibly close to the numbers from 2023 (navy), but just recently dipped below...

Is 26% the right odds for FEWER migrants apprehended through Canada than last year? Or should those odds be higher? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Total for the first half of 2024: 144,969

New Hampshire governor made an agreement with Quebec to share resources when policing the US-Canadian border, since crossings are up just as federal resources are shifting to the southern border: https://youtu.be/W72V0kd-pXU?si=Mnjqzm4GuRast1QC

As of April, 108,155 encounters, tracking higher than last year for every month so far this year.

Updating the title to reflect that “an encounter” is different from a person.

https://www.wral.com/story/fact-check-are-illegal-crossings-up-800-along-the-northern-u-s-border/21314701/