Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to Ferrari's final position in the 2026 Formula 1 World Constructors' Championship standings. Resolution will be determined by the official FIA final standings published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/team after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix concludes the season.
Background
Ferrari finished fourth in the 2025 Constructors Championship, a significant disappointment after narrowly finishing as runners-up to McLaren in 2024. The 2026 season will feature a major set of regulation changes with a revised power unit configuration and new active aerodynamics, which theoretically resets the competitive order. New chassis and engine regulations for 2026 mean this year's form book should theoretically be completely irrelevant. Ferrari's driver lineup features Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, who joined from Mercedes in 2025.
Considerations
Three new engine manufacturers will enter Formula One, with Audi entering the sport for the first time. Ferrari will supply Haas and Cadillac as customer teams, which could provide additional development resources and data.
1,000Market was ~22% on 3rd when I bet; I have it at ~3%. After Austin, Ferrari is 119 points ahead of Red Bull and McLaren with 5 races left and no sprints. Red Bull would have to outscore them by about 24 a race, and over the last five races they outscored Ferrari by 23 in total. https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/team