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MANIFOLD
FIDE Candidates 2026 [PROP BETS]
26
Ṁ350Ṁ3.7k
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES
Will any game finish under 20 moves or go over 120 moves?
Resolved
YES
Will any player score a hattrick (3 consecutive wins)?
Resolved
YES
Will an Asian win?
Resolved
YES
Will a player not be able to convert a +5 winning position as determined by Stockfish 17 NNUE?
Resolved
NO
Will there be a tiebreak to determine the winner?
Resolved
NO
Will either the Rossolimo or Alapin Sicilian be played?
Resolved
NO
Will Anish Giri have the most draws (or tie for the most draws) in the field?
Resolved
NO
Will an American win?
Resolved
NO
Will Matthias Bluebaum finish in the top half?
Resolved
YES
Will Kris Littlejohn be present as a second in Cyprus?

  • Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Stockfish 17 NNUE analysis will use a standard depth of 21.

  • Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Will an Asian win?' prop bet, Asian is defined as: Wei Yi, Pragg (Praggnanandhaa), and Sindarov only.

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@_M_ Can this resolve? Thanks!

@_M_ @archvenison

reg. Kris Littlejohn

What do we need for resolving Yes?

I just watched J. Gustafsson video where he briefly introduced all the seconds. After listening it seemed that Kris Littlejohn was at present in Pafos although no direct proof picture or so. Nakaruma confirmed he still is his second when he was blaming his others except Kris. Dont know if this would be enough for Yes for now

I bet yes based on something Jan said in the broadcast for one of the early rounds

@_M_ In addition to the game Q mentioned, make sure to check Wei-Giri before resolving No

bought Ṁ50 YES

@_M_ not sure exactly how you want to evaluate, but I would check Bluebaum-Sindarov before black’s 24th move

is this correct? Which ggame had 120+?
(Resolved YES Will any game finish under 20 moves or go over 120 moves?)

3-fold SIndarov-Blübaum after 18 my mistake

bought Ṁ10 NO

@_M_ Sindarov has won 3 straight

@_M_ How much depth?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Wintersfan standard depth of 21

bought Ṁ10 NO

@_M_ Which candidates are considered Asian for this question? My interpretation would be Wei Yi, Pragg, and Sindarov only

candidates that are representing asian countries