I will not trade on this market.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the total area burned by wildfires in Canada during the 2025 wildfire season exceeds 5 million hectares. The primary source for verification will be the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre's National Fire Situation Report, accessible at https://ciffc.net/. If the report indicates that the total area burned in 2025 is greater than 5 million hectares, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Background

As of June 15, 2025, Canada has experienced a significant wildfire season, with approximately 3.8 million hectares burned across various provinces. Notably, Saskatchewan has reported 1.33 million hectares burned, Manitoba 901,166 hectares, and Alberta 653,421 hectares. (en.wikipedia.org)

Comparatively, the 2024 wildfire season resulted in approximately 5.38 million hectares burned by November 20, 2024, making it one of the most destructive seasons on record. (en.wikipedia.org)

The 2023 season was unprecedented, with about 18.5 million hectares burned, surpassing previous records. (globalnews.ca)

Considerations

• Seasonal Progression: The wildfire season in Canada typically peaks during the summer months, with activity often extending into the fall. The current figures as of mid-June suggest that the season is still developing, and the total area burned could increase significantly in the coming months.

• Climate Factors: Climate change has been linked to more frequent and intense wildfires due to warmer temperatures and drier conditions. (reuters.com)

• Historical Context: While the 2023 season was exceptionally severe, the 2024 season saw a reduction in total area burned. It's important to consider whether the 2025 season will follow a similar trend or if conditions will lead to a higher total area burned.

• Data Reporting: The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre provides regular updates on wildfire statistics. Traders should monitor these reports for the most current information. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given these factors, traders should assess the likelihood of the total area burned in 2025 exceeding 5 million hectares based on current trends, historical data, and ongoing environmental conditions.