Taken from the second prediction in the State of AI Report. A proposal to regulate AGI Labs like Biosafety Labs gets backing from an elected UK, US or EU politician. This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2023 report.

No — resolved on Oct 13, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

Will a proposal to regulate AGI Labs like Biosafety Labs get backing from an elected UK, US or EU politician?

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ23
2		Ṁ2

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

27% chance

Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?

63% chance

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

47% chance

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

38% chance

[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?

27% chance

Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

35% chance

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

49% chance

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

16% chance