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Resolved yes

Archive link:

https://archive.ph/4bHvX

Fascinating chart on this one

How is this market resolved? Is the link in the description used at a specific time on the last day of September, or first of October?

@capybara midnight Sep 30th eastern I’ll archive the link

Looks like an app called Lapse is going viral

@Bill Saturday night this ends (midnight ET)… if people are socializing they might download this app while out and about lol

@Bill I definitely get the impression that this market has been overconfident at every turn. It's a very volatile list, and the winner has changed in the last 24h. But right now I'm not sure. Intuitively, <80% seems right, but I can't add any rigor to that whatsoever.

ChatGPT is a contender

Looking at Google Trends data for the current top 5 (Temu, Retro Bowl College, Lapse, McDonald's, and Wendy's), Temu has consistently been at the top since ~mid-May (or two months ago), which seems like a pretty strong sign given that September only has ten days left to go.

EDIT: sorry i misinterpreted the data

@duck_master Tail risk is something viral pops up last day of September

threads?

Threads is currently stuck in fourteenth place! I doubt it'll top Temu's performance in the next week or two.

EDIT: partially taking back my claim given reply below

it was #1 when i made that comment lol

In retrospect... the Apple store ranking algorithm is completely opaque as far as I can tell... and since I would want to rely on data for variability (besides just historical rankings) I'm not going to bet on this market ....

@parhizj It’s a tough market for sure.

Youtube TV is now ahead of it and the hype is dying down

@cc6 ?? I am very confused ...

@cc6 Temu back on top. YouTube TV was everyone wanting to watch sports

If this starts bouncing around I’ll clarify the end date as midnight eastern time September 30th

this is a disgrace for sustainability, recycling and the circular economy in general

There are a few pieces of legislation that have been introduced that could supposedly impact TEMU (data protection in house bills (eg, hr 1353 ) and a senate bill that changes the duty free tax exemption amount (s.1969))… I don’t foresee any progress on these bills in the next 3 weeks, nor do I expect Americans to change their behavior regarding data privacy (no matter how many articles get written about TEMU or Chinese spying, of which there have been a few recently as well as some going back months. There is bipartisan agreement on data privacy but congress is generally slower moving than glaciers in my opinion.

Given TEMU is at the top at September 10 and has been for quite some time as far as I can tell I think it very likely it will be at the top at the end of September.

@parhizj I can’t believe it was trading sub 50%. It was top app past couple months