For people here bullish on the Netherlands: real-money markets are way below Manifold's rate (9% vs 18%), so you could make a positive EV bet even accounting for their massive fees. https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision

@andri unlike e.g. political markets, I'd be very hesitant to take Manifold's prediction over betting sites here 😬

@HenriThunberg ehhh, yeah, but this isnt sports betting either.

The Eurovision final will happen on 11 May 2024. A chronological list of past winners can be found on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eurovision_Song_Contest_winners#Winners_by_year

Countries with the most wins are Ireland (7), Sweden (7), France (5), Luxembourg (5), UK (5), Netherlands (5)