Will Iran intervene in Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict this year?
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153
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resolved Dec 31
Resolved
N/A

This market is contignent on Azerbejian and Armenia entering a state of armed conflict, just as they did in September of 2022, or during the War in 2020, before end of the current year. If such does not occur, this market will obviously resolve N/A.

The market will resolve at no if Iran does not intervene in any significant capacity beyond the standard diplomatic measures (Such as Condemnation, Sanctions, et cetera.)

If Iran intervenes militarly, by deploying it's own armed forces on the ground in Armenia, or in disputed territory, or by engaging Azeri military from other territories. (Such as large cross-border shelling, or air strikes.) this market will resolve yes.

This market will also resolve yes if Iran uses one of it's proxy forces to intervene on side of Armenia. (Such as foreign militias backed by Iranian states, like Hezbollah, Hüseynçilər or Liwa Fatemiyoun, but obviously not limited to just these three.)

The market will be resolved based on credible reports by major news media, or by declaration of the Iranian state. (If Iran outright declares war on Azerbejian, we obviously don't have to wait for CNN or such to write about it, same with Iran announcing any hostile military action like strikes on Azeri military forces.)

If neither Iran makes any statements, nor credible news media, consensus of credible OSINT community members backed by enough of visual proofs, and unchanging for peroid of a week will be used to resolve the market.

I will not be betting in this market for sake of avoiding conflict of interests.

Should there by any doubts, lack of clarity, or such, I'm more then happy to discuss such in comments

Happy betting!

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This is the piece of media that has prompted me to create this market,

Nagorno Karabakh Observer on X: "MAJOR - Over 20 videos apparently showing troop movement in #Azerbaijan, now #Iran's IRGC (Pasdaran) post video warning Baku against what could possibly be another incursion into #Armenia's south, creating the Zangezur corridor. *Another indication something may be fermenting https://t.co/3AmOsxbckp" / X (twitter.com)

Despite rather fiery rhetoric which is par for the course for Azeri-Armenian diplomatic relationship, most recent photo and video evidence might be pointing to Azerbaijan planning for another military conflict with Armenia, however, never before has Iran came out with this sort of rhetoric against Baku, as it seems that Tehran is increasingly concerned over prospect of Zangezur corridor coming into existence, question being if Iran would actually be ready to take part in military conflict to stop such.

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