If a peace deal ends the Russia Ukraine war, is it brokered by China?
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162
370
2033
29%
chance

If no peace deal, I'll resolve PROB.

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best case is korea-style ceasefire. Worst case is a hot war continuing for decades. I can't see both sides ever agreeing to the same terms on a peace deal. I can't see either side winning either.

For those voting no, who do you think it'd be brokered by instead?

bought Ṁ15 of NO

@BenjaminIkuta In all honesty, this feels like it’ll not have a formal peace declaration for years or decades.

@JohnSmithb9be That would not cause this market to resolve no.

bought Ṁ18 of YES

@JohnSmithb9be I think worth pointing out that if this happens, this market will either stay open or resolve NA

bought Ṁ24 of NO

@BenjaminIkuta What if it is broker by multiple countries?

@footgun I think it would make sense to count that.

predicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta Not sure I agree. I will stay out of this question. Thanks!

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