@mods Resolution date (1 October) has passed and OP is inactive, but I think - despite the somewhat vague description - this is a pretty clear-cut YES.

Google trends for relevant terms, discussed as an indicator of the trend under discussion below, are all way higher than when this question was created (September 2023). https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=LLM%20hallucinations,AI%20hallucinations,ChatGPT%20hallucinations,AI%20hallucination&hl=en

How does this market resolve if we're still talking about the same problem, but instead of "hallucination" we refer to it as "confabulation" (the correct term for this behavior)?

How will this market be determined?

Does it have to be the single biggest headline topic, or can it be one among a few headline topics?

Here is some potentially relevant Google Trends data. It’s very noisy, but it does show that LLM hallucinations did start taking off as a topic around the start of this year.

@duck_master Love this Thank you!