This market resolves yes if on February 15th, 2026, when I think to use an LLM, I will default to asking Opus 4.5 first. It resolves no if I default to using any other model first.
Some history of my daily drivers:
GPT4 from March 2023 to December 2024
o1 from December 2024 to April 2025. o3 from April 2025 to August 2025. GPT5 from August 2025 to September 29th, 2025. Sonnet 4.5 from September 29th to November 19th 2025. Gemini 3 from November 19th, 2025 to November 24th 2025. Opus 4.5 from November 24th to ???.
My use cases are generally coding, brainstorming writing ideas, and copy editing. I dislike model hallucinations and I care a decent bit about model personality. However, I generally just default to the most intelligent model if such a model exists.
Since this is subjective I will not trade on this market.
1,000People are also trading
@BenAybar what subscription do you have? I think sonnet 4.6 plausibly comes out by then, and then if you're using Pro you'll wanna switch to Sonnet for better rate limits, but if you use Max then opus will squeeze in a bit more value than sonnet
@BenAybar i love that attitude! Sure, I’ll bet it will have better benchmark scores but worse subtlety understanding and generally worse intuition and likely worse vision. Closer to gpt5.2 along the opus to gpt 5.2 axis, than sonnet 4.5 was. One way to operationalize it: will people pretty much stop using opus 4.5 like thet largely did with opus 4.1 when sonnet 4.5 was released? Or will the power users keep using opus 4.5 in some type of tasks? We could identify 1-5 power users to poll after release
@Bayesian this seems like a reasonable arrangement I would place a pretty large bet for my bankroll at 50% on that
@Bayesian that phrasing works for me. I am probably most worried about vision of the things you discussed. The other things I think will come with the better benchmark scores probably, especially in an anthropic model.