Will Claude powerusers think Sonnet 4.6 is strictly better for everyday use than Opus 4.5, analogously to s4.5 vs o4.1?
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Opus 4.1 was for ~all purposes bested by sonnet 4.5 on release. Will the same be true of opus 4.5, upon sonnet 4.6’s release, for power users who dont concern themselves with the model cost to any significant degree?

  • Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market specifically refers to Sonnet 4.6 only (not 4.7, 4.75, or other version numbers)

    • If Sonnet 4.6 is never released, market resolves N/A

    • If Sonnet 4.6 is released after January 2026, the close date will be pushed back

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Does This resolve N/A if there's no model called "Sonnet 4.6" release by January 31? And/or why do you think such a model will exist?

As a super user. My personal perspective was that Claude opus 4.1 was far better at coding than sonnet 4.5. So I’m curious how you’re going to determine this.

@StatsMan ah. hmmmmmmm

Just want to clarify that if the next release was .7 or .75 that would count

@BenAybar If they go straight to Sonnet 5?

Well I don't decide because it's not my market but I would imagine it should n/a

@BenAybar Oh whoops sorry I took your original post as a statement not a question.

@BenAybar just sonnet 4.6. If it is never released, resolves N/A. If it's released after january, resolution date is pushed back. does that work?

@Bayesian yeah that's fine

How are you gonna find out what power users who don't concern themselves with model cost think?

@AlexanderTheGreater i know a couple

and i'm hoping ppl yap enough on twitter that it's unambiguous

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@BenAybar

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@Bayesian I decided I was hedging too much

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