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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
16
Ṁ1kṀ3.4k
resolved Sep 22
Resolved
YES

Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a new model to the public that is billed as more capable uniformly than Fable 5.1 before their IPO. A model is considered released if it's available via the API, Claude Code, the Claude app, or any other public location.

The market resolves no otherwise.

If Anthropic doesn't IPO by the end of 2027, and this market hasn't resolved yes yet, resolves N/A.

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'Uniformly" isn't strict, right? Like if they release Fable 5.2, but it's worse than 5.1 on a few benchmarks (but better on most), does that count?

@rogs yeah its not gonna be crazy strict