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MANIFOLD
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
2
Ṁ1kṀ37
2027
52%
chance

Resolves yes if Anthropic releases a new model to the public that is billed as more capable uniformly than Fable 5.1 before their IPO. A model is considered released if it's available via the API, Claude Code, the Claude app, or any other public location.

The market resolves no otherwise.

If Anthropic doesn't IPO by the end of 2027, and this market hasn't resolved yes yet, resolves N/A.

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