Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?
40
Ṁ1kṀ9.9k
2027
16%
chance

A year from now (market creation date)

  • Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves YES if mathematicians widely agree the proof is probably valid by the deadline. Resolves NO if mathematicians are widely uncertain, skeptical, or do not consider it solved.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

June 3th doesn't exist, so it's impossible that Navier-Strokes is considered solved on June 3th

@MollTheCoder ah so this is why the market probability has been so low

What does "be considered solved" mean?

@0xseraphim i'm thinking we know it when we see it but do you have a case in mind where you'd find this ambiguous

@Bayesian a very long proof written by an AI. Or a proof that uses new mathematics people are unfamiliar with.

@0xseraphim if the mathematicians get around to widely agreeing the proof is probably valid by the deadline it counts, if they are very uncertain or skeptical or widely don’t consider it solved it wouldn’t

as an aside if you’re worried about this ambiguity mattering i’d be happy to bet on that separate event with you, as ambiguity insurance say

I bet my $85.80 to @BionicD0LPH1N 's $134.20, where I win if this market resolves NO.

bought Ṁ500 NO