Will most people be dating robot cat girls in 15 years?
21
100Ṁ1723
2040
2%
chance

This is a claim oft.. claimed. Time to put your mana where your mouth is.

  • Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Robotness Criteria Clarification:

    • Catgirls that are designed with artificial intelligence will be considered as having sufficient robotness even if they are biological.

  • Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of 'People':

    • The term can mean humans that are currently alive, all humans ever, or all sentient beings on Earth.

    • Reasonable alternative definitions (such as restricting to adults) are acceptable.

Relationship Status:

  • A participant does not need to divorce their spouse for the market to resolve YES; polyamorous arrangements also count.

Age Range Consideration:

  • Individuals older than 30 are included in the criteria for dating robot cat girls.

  • Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dating Criteria Clarification:

    • Mutual Agreement: It counts as dating only if both you and the robot cat girl consider the relationship as dating.

    • Subjective Assessment: If either party deems the interaction too casual to be termed as dating, it does not count as dating.

    • Polling Method: Rather than relying solely on a Manifold poll, conventional data-gathering methods (i.e., statistical tracking by designated entities) will be used to determine the outcome.

  • Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Robot Cat Girl Definition Update

    • Corporeal Form: Catgirls do not need to have a physical form.

Dating Criteria Update

  • Mutual Agreement: A relationship counts as dating only if both parties (the person and the robot cat girl) agree that it is a date.

  • Subjectivity: If either party considers the relationship too casual to be termed dating, it does not count.

Accepted Forms of Robot Cat Girls

  • Dating an AI with no visual aspect counts if both the AI and you view it as dating.

  • Dating an AI with an on-screen VTuber avatar counts under the same mutual agreement condition.

  • Dating an AI embodied as a non-tactile hologram is clearly accepted.

  • Dating a real human using a catgirl avatar/model in VR counts only if a relevant future intellectual community deems that robot cat girl traits are present at the time of sampling.

  • Dating a robot cat girl AI agent in VR counts if both the agent and you consider the interaction as dating.

Determination of Robot Cat Girl Characteristics

  • The final determination of what qualifies as a robot cat girl is decided by the future intellectual community or another relevant group at the time the statistics are sampled.

Resolution Criteria Reminder

  • For the market to resolve YES, a majority of people must date robot cat girls as defined above.

  • Update 2025-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Robot Cat Boys Clarification Update:

    • Exclusion Principle: Robot cat boys do not automatically count as robot cat girls.

    • Dual Classification Exception: If a robot cat boy qualifies as both a robot cat boy and a robot cat girl, it will be considered a robot cat girl for market resolution.

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Why does this define people and robots, but says nothing about what is required for catness?

@DavidBolin The task of adequately defining catness seems far beyond my own capabilities, and my hubris doesn't go so far as to attempt it. This is why, in another comment, I have left the task of defining robot catness to the intellectual community of the future, or some other group that seems relevant.

sold Ṁ6 YES

what if the machines turn everybody into robot cat girls?

@MalachiteEagle In that eventuality this market would likely resolve YES, or at least its resolution criteria would likely be triggered for a YES resolution.

Are catboys included in the term catgirls for the purpose of this market?

@MartinRandall That's a tricky question. The robot cat boys will not necessarily count as robot cat girls for the purpose of this market, but if a robot cat boy is enough of a robot cat girl to be both a robot cat boy and a robot cat girl, they would count as a robot cat girl for the purpose of this market.

Do the catgirls need to have corporeal form? Where on this gradient would you draw the line?

  • Would dating just a voiced AI with no visual aspects to speak of count? (They owould just speak with catgirl myañerisms, ñya.)

  • Would dating an AI with an on-screen VTuber avatar count?

  • Would dating an AI embodied in some non-tactile hologram count?

  • Would dating a real human person with a catgirl avatar/model in VR count? What if it was an AI agent in VR instead?

@Quroe If the intellectual community of the future, or some other group that seems relevant, sees these as robot cat girls, then they will count for the purpose of this market, and if this relevant group does not see them as robot cat girls, then they will not count for the purpose of this market.

Here is where I draw the line.

  • Catgirls don't need to have a corporeal form

  • dating an ai that is a robot cat girl with no visual aspect to speak of would count if both the ai and you view what you are doing as dating. I am not in the business of disagreeing with the heart.

  • dating a robot cat girl AI with an on-screen VTuber avatar would count if both the VTuber avatar and you view what you are doing as dating.

  • dating a robot cat girl AI embodied in some non-tactile hologram would mega count. that is epic.

  • dating a real human person with a catgirl avatar/model in VR would count if and only if the intellectual community of the future or some other group that seems relevant deems robot cat girlness to be imbued into that real human person during the moment 15 years from now when the statistic will be sampled.

  • dating a robot cat girl AI agent in VR instead would count if both the robot cat girl AI agent in VR, and you, view what you are doing as dating.


As a summary:

  • "robot cat girl"ness is determined by the intellectual community of the future or some other group that seems relevant at the time for determining robot cat girlness.

  • "dating"ness is determined as whether the participants in the union all consider it dating. If language morphs within 15 years for this question to not really make sense under their semantics, we will request that they use April 8th, 2025 semantics for the word "dating" in the answering of the question.

  • For this market to resolve YES, a majority of "people" must "date" "robot cat girls".

https://www.deviantart.com/vanga-vangog/art/Real-life-catgirl-we-deserved-816746845

Real-life catgirl we deserved

Real-life genetically engineered catgirl FOR SALE.

Constructed using human and cat DNA in a series of illegal experiments on people in an underground lab in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy.

Features:

-Dumb as hell, since her yuge eye sockets leave no space for a brain in the head. Can eat, shit, scratch and mumble. Understands some basic commands in russian.

-Can't speak. That jaw is too small for it, I presume.

-The tapetum glows nicely in the dark. Be ready to pay extra for your lights, because you certainly won't want to turn them off anymore.

-No tail. Sorry. The one with a tail died at the age of 3 from a horrible pelvis deformities.

Comes with:

-Dirty and bloody hospital patient gown she wears right from her birth. Smells shit, amniotic waters and maybe drugs.

-Nightmares.

-Your wallpapers and skin torn to shit

I could see robot girls, but I don't see why everyone would want a robot cat girl specifically

Will this resolve based on a Manifold poll?

Also, does it count as dating if you're seeing each other on and off but nothing serious?

if both you and the robot cat girl consider it dating, it counts as dating. if either of you considers it nothing serious enough to use official, scary terms like "dating", then that's a no.

Will this resolve based on a Manifold poll?

your optimism is nice to see but unless we can poll every "people" in the world in 15 years on manifold.markets to see whether they are dating a robot cat girl at the time, I will resort to more conventional means like asking the superbeings that keep track of that kind of statistic

opened aṀ2,000NO at 20% order
reposted

@Bayesian 😂

Most people alive? Is the expectation that I will divorce my wife for an AI catgirl? Will my elderly mother also be dating an AI catgirl? Or is this going to be the prime dating age bracket of 18-30 as-at time of resolution?

@Noit Presumably a polycule where you and your wife are jointly dating a catgirl would count. So, imo divorce is unnecessary. #preserveHumanRelationships (and add catgirl threesomes)

most people, as interpreted as any of:
- "people" being the group of humans that are alive

- "people" being the group of all humans ever

- "people" being the group of all sentient beings on earth (alive or ever)

- any other similarly reasonable definition. probably "adults" would count as well, to exclude children.

Is the expectation that I will divorce my wife for an AI catgirl?

You should ask YES holders! I sure don't expect that. But you would not necessarily need to divorce your wife for an AI catgirl for this market to resolve YES. You could either be part of the silent non-robot-cat-girl minority, OR you could be poly.

Will my elderly mother also be dating an AI catgirl?

Only time will tell!

Or is this going to be the prime dating age bracket of 18-30 as-at time of resolution?

people older than 30 can definitely be dating robot cat girls. come onnnnnnn.

I think designed-with-artificial-intelligence catgirls should still count, even if they're biological. 🐱

@MaxHarms i'll consider that enough robotness for this market

@Bayesian And what if the designed-with-artificial-intelligence catgirls were constructed by reshaping humans (ie with nanotech or advanced biotech or downloading uploaded minds into robot bodies)?

These are the important questions the people want to get answers to!

@MaxHarms that is definitely, unquestionably, super duper robot cat girl stuff.

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