Will I (@Bayesian) get below 0.15 in calibration before the end of 2024?

Manifold Manifold Users Calibration

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9

Ṁ1.3k

resolved Jun 11

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/calibration

YES if I get below 0.15 at any point in the year.

See also:
/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-010-in-ca

/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-015-in-ca (This one)

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Resolves YES

Currently -0.22. Probably won't make it tbh, unless I get more consistent with my betting volume, which i don't have any reason to be

@Bayesian LOL I spoke too soon? Somehow I'm at -0.11 now... I'm really sorry chrisV if you feel deceived, I genuinely didn't expect that at all

@Bayesian You did amazing man! No apologies needed. Getting that last little bit of calibration is really hard!

is this, “at any point in the year”?

Related questions

Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?

Will Five Thirty Eight admit substantial errors in their model before the end of August 2024?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will I lead a completed pretraining of a >=1B param language model before EOY 2024?

What month will I get my calibration back up to a B?

My calibration will hit -0.02 before it hits 0 [@mattyb Calibration Stock]

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2024?

Will Insight Prediction fail by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will Manifold's calibration improve in 2024?

My calibration will hit -0.02 before it hits 0 [@mattyb Calibration Stock]

Will Five Thirty Eight admit substantial errors in their model before the end of August 2024?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2024?

Will I lead a completed pretraining of a >=1B param language model before EOY 2024?

Will Insight Prediction fail by the end of 2024?

What month will I get my calibration back up to a B?