Will I (@Bayesian) get below 0.15 in calibration before the end of 2024?

9

Ṁ200Ṁ1.3k

resolved Jun 11

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/calibration

YES if I get below 0.15 at any point in the year.

See also:
/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-010-in-ca

/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-015-in-ca (This one)

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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Resolves YES

Currently -0.22. Probably won't make it tbh, unless I get more consistent with my betting volume, which i don't have any reason to be

@Bayesian LOL I spoke too soon? Somehow I'm at -0.11 now... I'm really sorry chrisV if you feel deceived, I genuinely didn't expect that at all

@Bayesian You did amazing man! No apologies needed. Getting that last little bit of calibration is really hard!

is this, “at any point in the year”?

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