Bayesian's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.21
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Bayesian bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Whales vs. Minnows: Will traders hold at least 10000x as many YES shares as there are traders holding NO shares?NOṀ652
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ500
- Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?YESṀ395
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%