Will I (@Bayesian) get below 0.10 in calibration before the end of 2024?
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Ṁ1.3kresolved Jun 15
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YES1D
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https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/calibration
YES if I get below 0.15 at any point in the year.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-010-in-ca (This one)
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Fellas, it's going heckin well. I guess I'm predicting less significantly in long-term-hard-to-estimate things than id want to, so calibration isn't as meaningful as it used to. But I mean, I was at -1 for a while and i thought i had a fundamental miscalibration issue, and maybe i do but now i can't tell lol
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