Will I (@Bayesian) get below 0.10 in calibration before the end of 2024?
8
180Ṁ1273resolved Jun 15
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/calibration
YES if I get below 0.15 at any point in the year.
See also:
/Bayesian/will-i-bayesian-get-below-010-in-ca (This one)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ183 | |
| 2 | Ṁ51 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?
23% chance
Will Manifold's calibration be better at the end of 2027?
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
25% chance
Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?
65% chance