Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?

Question

[tweet]Current score is 1512. If the gpt-image-2 (medium) score on lmarena is below 1490 Elo (arbitrary threshold set by me), on May 21st, in the text-to-image arena leaderboard, this market resolves YES

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 21, 2026).

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