[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026? | Manifold

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

10

1kṀ1072

2026

49%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves to a poll, asking manifold users in August 2026 if they agree with this take:

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?

Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Which AI future will we get?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?

Related questions

Will AI be Recursively Self Improving by mid 2026?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

By the end of 2025, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

An AI model with 100 trillion parameters exists by the end of 2025?

Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Which AI future will we get?

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy