Will a robot that autonomously picks up leaves and puts them in a bag be publicly demonstrated by EOY 2024?
49
249
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resolved Apr 27
Resolved
YES

ie, will brian-machado, or anyone else, accomplish Nat Friedman's dream, by the end of the year?

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That's the jankiest version imaginable of that requirement. But I guess it does technically meet the threshold

bad resolve, Nat Friedman's dream is something that can replace leaf blower, short demo video doesn't demonstrate that

Hmmmm

I suppose it is a short demo video. would yall rather it stay open until there's a robot that can pick like a few dozen leaves in a row or something? I can ask nat whether his dream is fulfilled but I don't expect a response

@Bayesian I imagine it should be able to clear the entire lawn.

@jim I agree it needs to be able to clear a lawn, ideally available for sale. (Or at least Nat owns one)

bought Ṁ500 YES

Designed in 24 hours in response to Nat's challenge. https://twitter.com/danieljkchoi/status/1783338086409335108

@JamesBakerc884 WOW. Awesome, thank you! I'm resolving it YES.

A human being paid to blow leaves with a gas police powered blower an empty suburban parking lot in the dark predawn hours, disturbing neighboring human and wildlife. Let’s put that as the image (prompt) since I don’t have a photo of it.

Does it count if the robot puts the leaves in a basket?

@Tumbles I'll ask Nat Friedman if he considers his dream achieved. If so, I'll count it.

@Bayesian Does it count if the robot is biological or does it have to be made out of common robot components?

@Tumbles If Nat Friedman considers it to have fulfilled his dream, then it resolves YES. I'm not exactly sure if he would count biological robots, but if they are robot-y enough he probably would.

@Bayesian What if the robot has theoretical leaf-picking-up applications but is only used for pinecone-picking-up and is lost or stolen before it can be tested for leaves

@Tumbles Does Nat Friedman consider it to have fulfilled his dream, in this hypothetical? just curious.

@Bayesian He isn't sure, he's having a bit of a crisis and feels like he needs external support figuring out his dreams. He feels so disappointed that the robot was lost before he could have it that he is having trouble engaging in the hypothetical scenario of having received it. A real funk. His therapist recommends he ask @Bayesian for technical advice as part of his treatment plan for moving forward

@Tumbles His therapist clearly is looking out for his best interests, then. In this hypothetical scenario, future Bayesian would successfully convince Nat Friedman to put everything else aside, shut up, and do the impossible: realizing whether or not his previous self's dreams have been fulfilled. He would do this not because it is easy, but because it is hard. Facing the horror of loss, and being able to pass judgements about whether the lost thing fulfills one's previously stated dreams.. is that not what life is all about? Nat would agree, and pass his judgement.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 37%
bought Ṁ20 NO from 21% to 20%

@Bayesian Thank you for clarifying this is very good to know

@Tumbles thank you for the precise questions. they're really pushing me to clarify the resolution criteria in a situation that is likely to come up as an interesting, though tragic, edge case

@Bayesian Real talk though, I'd much prefer if you write your own resolution criteria rather than relying on someone who's not on manifold to give imprecise judgements at some point in the future. I can't bet on this as is.