On what day will grok 3 be released?
On what day will grok 3 be released?
26
1.3kṀ12kresolved Mar 1
100%99.1%
February 17
0.0%
January 24
0.0%
January 25
0.0%
January 26
0.1%
January 27
0.1%
January 28
0.1%
January 29
0.0%
January 30
0.0%
January 31
0.0%
February 04
0.0%
February 02
0.1%
April 2
0.0%
April 20
0.0%
February 01
0.0%
February 03
0.0%
February 05
0.0%
February 06
0.0%
February 07
0.0%
February 08
0.0%
February 09
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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Grok 3.5 available before July?
54% chance
When will xAI release Grok 4 (or Grok 3.5)
7/26/25
When will xAI release grok 3 Thinking (NOT "Beta")?
6/10/25
What will be true of Grok-2?
Will future versions of Grok be open sourced?
24% chance
When will xAI release Grok 4?
Will Grok 4 release before Chat GPT 5?
17% chance
Will Legally Blonde 3 release before Grok 3?
1% chance
Grok 4 before 2026?
83% chance