https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
By arena score, when it first appears on the leaderboard (unless it doesn't appear there in the first month after release, in which case the market resolves N/A).
If they announce two models at once (for example, they release 3.8 opus and 3.8 sonnet at the same time or on the same day), then this market will consider the highest arena score of the models announced on that day.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The arena score will be determined using the default view on lmarena.ai, including its default filters and other default settings, as they are active when the model first appears on the leaderboard.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน4,393 | |
| 2 | แน192 | |
| 3 | แน146 | |
| 4 | แน135 | |
| 5 | แน66 |
People are also trading
@Bayesian want to get out of some of your position? I'll sell YES if you put up a limit order at a good level.
@HenriThunberg i don't mind this market, i'd rather bet on the market that doesn't consider the possibility of them migrating to style control by default. i'd want to massively increase the size of my position on that one if possible
@MalachiteEagle style control ON becomes new default setting, and claude is the one model most positively affected by style control
@MalachiteEagle correct yeah, without style control a lot of the elo is stuff like how much it yaps (response length) and whether it uses lists and whatnot
@Bayesian I'm a YES holder so I'm biased. I'm fine either way but Please Please clarify before the new model drops
@HenriThunberg is there a probability you would bet a lot more at? others lmk as well. I'd like to increase the volume of my position if possible, and am hoping i'll find counterparties that also want to
@jim only 6000 shares? what kind of tiny upside is that? i'd bet more if i were you