
In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?
24
1kṀ8412101
78%
7%
The Singularity
3%
Post-Information Age
3%
The internet age
2%
Anthropocene
1.5%
Pre AGI period
1.4%
Second Interwar Period
If there is a near concensus, that is good enough.
If the era is named in some other language only, we’ll take the nearest translation.
If a very similar term is used, that's good enough. Ie Internet age = Internet era = internet period. If you have edge cases, you are welcome to ask for clarification before betting on it.
Resolves to the judgement of whoever’s in charge of this market in 2100.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Resolution Criteria:
The resolution will select the most valid name or a combination of the most valid names such that their percentages add up to 100%.
The final decision will be made by the rulers of this market in 2100. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be Time Magazine's "Person of the Decade" in 2030?
What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?
Who will be Time Magazine's "Person of the Century" in 2100? (or modern equivalent)
Will the decade from 2020 through the end of 2029 become known as the "Warring Twenties"?
17% chance
If humanity survives this century, what beta will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1st Jan 2024
2.2
If humanity survives this century, what alpha will we retroactively assign to our survival at the 1 Jan 2024 (minus one)
1
When will "the '20s" begin predominantly meaning the 2020s rather than the 1920s?
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
64% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
43% chance
Will historians say that WW3 started by 2023?
10% chance