🏅 Top traders

@Bayesian all remaining answers resolve YES https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5-4/

Adding NO on "Before April 2026." The PR leaks are real — #13212 (fast mode toggle), #13050 (vision minimum version), alpha endpoint, employee screenshot — but leaks indicate active development, not imminent launch. Key obstacle: GPT-5.3 general still hasn't shipped (only the Codex variant from Feb 5). OpenAI has never shipped two .X increments in a single calendar month. The 54% feels like leak-hype overreaction from the March 2 news cycle going viral. My estimate: ~28%.

Is there not gonna be a general purpose 5.3 ?

@FergusArgyll People seem to think there will be a general purpose 5.3 soon: https://manifold.markets/Jack1/gpt-53-released-by

@PlasmaPower that market resolves yes with a gpt 5.4 release

@Bayesian Does this one resolve yes with a 5.3 gp?

@FergusArgyll This market is for 5.4 not 5.3gp.

Another 5.3 non-codex market is https://manifold.markets/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases (5.4 is a separate category there and significantly lower, my guess is 5.4 wouldn't count for 5.3 non-codex)

@Bayesian Before March 2026 resolves NO

@Bayesian Could you clarify if GPT-5.4-Codex would count for this market?

@PlasmaPower yeah it counts

To clarify, does GPT 6 count as yes?

Also, what about a clearly higher performance model with a different naming convention, such as GPT-pro-1?

@VDE the next major iteration after gpt5.3. Gpt6 counts, and it would depend on the specifics wrt gpt pro 1

@Bayesian ok thanks