MANIFOLD
GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date
17
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
Dec 1
7%
Before March 2026
18%
Before April 2026
51%
Before May 2026
59%
Before June 2026
66%
Before July 2026
71%
Before August 2026
82%
Before September 2026
79%
Before October 2026
83%
Before November 2026
90%
Before December 2026

Minor changes to the name — including 'GPT 5.5' if OpenAI skips the 5.4 version number — will count for the purpose of this market.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

GPT 5.4 (OpenAI) release date (this market)

GPT 5.5 (OpenAI) release date

GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

Gemini 3.5 (Google) release date

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Llama 5 (Meta) release date

V4 (DeepSeek) release date

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Qwen 4 (Alibaba Qwen) release date

Kimi K3 (Moonshot) release date

GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date

M3 (Minimax) release date

Mistral 4 (Mistral) release date

OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date

Veo 4 (Google) release date

New image / video "Mango" model (Meta) release date

'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date

Thinking Machines' first LLM announcement date

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ30 YES

To clarify, does GPT 6 count as yes?

Also, what about a clearly higher performance model with a different naming convention, such as GPT-pro-1?

@VDE the next major iteration after gpt5.3. Gpt6 counts, and it would depend on the specifics wrt gpt pro 1

@Bayesian ok thanks

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy