
If whether Sonnet 5 was released is ambiguous (various valid definitions yield a different resolution decision), uninvolved moderators will be asked to resolve the market based on what they find to be most reasonable, between YES, NO, and N/A. The market will not resolve to PROB.
Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time zone and week definition:
Saturday (US time) counts as "this week"
Next Monday counts as "next week"
Sunday (US time) releases will resolve N/A due to ambiguity
Releases with ambiguous dates across mainland US time zones will resolve N/A
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ115,416 | |
| 2 | Ṁ108,154 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5,338 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5,116 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4,687 |
People are also trading
@Bayesian Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order at 1%... not remembering I had to scale the number down 100x. I really really did not want to spend Ṁ873 on YES at 1%, and it's a lot of mana for me. Would you be willing to undo it by filling my current NO order? If I understand correctly that should cancel it out more or less.
I really wish this site had limit sell orders.
@xjp The intention is that you click on the number next to "Max YES Payout" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purchase.
You know it’s a good market when it has traded at >98% and <2% and it’s not done
@Ixa pls don't kys. It's ok. Things could be much, much worse. You could be a shrimp being boiled alive. Use this experience to learn and grow 🙏
Y'know, maybe this blog post is onto something: https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-about-anthropics-fennec-model/
What if... hear me out... Sonnet 5 DID LAUNCH, but only for other AI agents to use? That would explain why this blog post, written by an AI, seems to know something we humans don't.
An AI model created BY AI and FOR AI. What if AI agents have been using Sonnet 5 for days now, while us humans are stuck using human-mode models like Opus 4.6? Just a thought, idk.
@Bayesian I think we should resolve this market YES if it's confirmed that other AI agents have had access to Sonnet 5.