MANIFOLD
Claude Sonnet 5 released this week?
495
Ṁ1kṀ770k
resolved Feb 8
Resolved
NO

If whether Sonnet 5 was released is ambiguous (various valid definitions yield a different resolution decision), uninvolved moderators will be asked to resolve the market based on what they find to be most reasonable, between YES, NO, and N/A. The market will not resolve to PROB.

  • Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time zone and week definition:

    • Saturday (US time) counts as "this week"

    • Next Monday counts as "next week"

    • Sunday (US time) releases will resolve N/A due to ambiguity

    • Releases with ambiguous dates across mainland US time zones will resolve N/A

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Congrats on the NO forecasters

@Bayesian thanks, it's about time always taking the opposite side to you paid off

sold Ṁ9 YES

Anthropic can do the funniest thing to this ranked season by releasing Sonnet 5 on Sunday

@moobunny i would smoke so many cigarettes if it turns out they were waiting for the Sonnet Sunday

@Bayesian Hi I really fucked up. I'm kind of a noob and I tried to cash out Ṁ1,000 of my winnings on this by placing a YES order at 1%... not remembering I had to scale the number down 100x. I really really did not want to spend Ṁ873 on YES at 1%, and it's a lot of mana for me. Would you be willing to undo it by filling my current NO order? If I understand correctly that should cancel it out more or less.

I really wish this site had limit sell orders.

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 1.0% order

@xjp did this work? Lmk

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 1.0% order

i think not, just u can sell your yes shares in the next few minutes

sold Ṁ743 YES

@Bayesian Done thank you!!

I think the other way would have worked if we had done it in Ṁ10k chunks to avoid the order being cancelled because of my limited balance. Saw someone else pointing out that issue recently.

Anyways I really appreciate it. Honourable of you.

@xjp np, i agree it’s confusing but non obvious to propose a strictly better alternative UI

@xjp The intention is that you click on the number next to "Max YES Payout" and enter the amount of shares you wish to purchase.

sold Ṁ3 YES

You know it’s a good market when it has traded at >98% and <2% and it’s not done

boughtṀ1,000YES

@afhAIRFRANCEHEAVY insider? /s

fuck this shit im broke im gonna kill myself now

@Ixa dont do it bro its sonnet saturday tmrw

@256 😂

@Ixa pls don't kys. It's ok. Things could be much, much worse. You could be a shrimp being boiled alive. Use this experience to learn and grow 🙏

This seems kind of ambiguous, I suggest handing off the resolution to an unbiased moderator such as Ben S

Y'know, maybe this blog post is onto something: https://wavespeed.ai/blog/posts/claude-sonnet-5-everything-we-know-about-anthropics-fennec-model/

What if... hear me out... Sonnet 5 DID LAUNCH, but only for other AI agents to use? That would explain why this blog post, written by an AI, seems to know something we humans don't.

An AI model created BY AI and FOR AI. What if AI agents have been using Sonnet 5 for days now, while us humans are stuck using human-mode models like Opus 4.6? Just a thought, idk.

@Bayesian I think we should resolve this market YES if it's confirmed that other AI agents have had access to Sonnet 5.

@bens this is a joke please don't get mad at me XD

I'm becoming a "Sonnet 5 is Opus 4.6" truther.

@Bayesian the truth is not democratically determined!!!!!!

@MarySmith we'll see about that

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