If the bill is passed with this 10 year moratorium on ai regulation still there, the market resolves YES. if this part of the bill is removed or the bill doesn't pass, resolves NO. idk the timeline by which we will know the bill won't pass, so may adjust the close date accordingly
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Still seems like it might get point-of-ordered, but it seems to have survived the Parlimentarian (with modifications), which I wasn't sure it would: https://x.com/Dareasmunhoz/status/1930746510796366290
Members of the house and senate are hearing from their constituents about this provision from multiple independent groups and individuals; people are not happy about it.
This provision was introduced by Rep. Brett Guthrie (R) of KY. It's opposed by Dems by default, and there are also Republicans who oppose it.
This language violates the Byrd rule (since it has nothing to do with the budget), and is expected to be quickly thrown out when it gets to the Senate.
@Haiku so I looked it up and the Byrd rule requires complaining about the violation to Mike Pence, who made a speech at the Paris AI summit that was strongly pro accel.
If Pence overrules the objection the clause stays and it requires 60 votes to overcome - or a total of 12 Republican defections.
It's still a controversial clause and a misuse of the rules but given the bill already passed the House with the clause intact I think the odds are much, much higher than 10 percent.
@GeraldMonroe I've been calling my senators multiple times a week, and occasionally calling the members of the Senate Budget Committee. (Clearly only to manipulate this market. 😉) But I do think you're right that 10% is too low. 46% is probably too high, but I don't want to throw more mana at it.
@Haiku well if you have a vested interest in the outcome you should bet on YES so you win mana if it goes the way you are against.
@GeraldMonroe Do you want to bet more around 43%? I dont know the details of american legislature or wtv but it seems to me like this would be a pretty absurd thing to pass
@Bayesian https://chatgpt.com/share/68379f46-38b8-800a-8ed6-492fa129c3ff
I did some DD with o3, enough to bet play money.
@GeraldMonroe Epic, I left a No limit order at 43%, which you can feel free to fill. it’s ofc ok if not you’re already pretty heavily invested in this market hmm
@Bayesian I never bought mana so far, and I think the real odds of this question are much, much higher due to the mechanism of the Byrd rule and the high priority of this legislation passing to the somewhat corrupt Trump admin.
Honestly I am curious if your willingness to gamble has to do with vibes or you know something I don't. I mean it already passed the House...
@GeraldMonroe Yeah I can explain more. Basically I spend a lot of time on this site predicting lots of things, often things idk much about. I am often amazed at how well simple heuristics do, and often people that don’t know details about a particular market will outperform people who have looked into the most specific of details about it and have a deep understanding of the mechanisms involved, because the latter people aren’t aware or decide not to apply some useful heuristics. The most useful heuristics imo are tied in the ‘nothing ever happens’ umbrela heuristic. Many things can happen, so by default each specific possibility is unlikely. Most of the time boring things happen, something close to the ‘default’, partly because people’s agency make that happen. I may of course be wrong in this particular case but it seems to me like this would be a weird thing to happen so I am guessing it won’t
@Bayesian ah. So you're taking mana lunch money from everyone who is passionate about an outcome and expect something to happen when it generally won't.
AI is kinda a high volatility topic to make that bet on, something very often does happen, but I see from your mana pool that it usually pays off.
@GeraldMonroe Yeah that’s a good way to put it, and I agree heuristics sometimes fail in some domains and ai is changing quickly. This feels more like the somain of government than ai to me, ig on intuition, but fair point