If the bill is passed with this 10 year moratorium on ai regulation still there, the market resolves YES. if this part of the bill is removed or the bill doesn't pass, resolves NO. idk the timeline by which we will know the bill won't pass, so may adjust the close date accordingly
Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about a 'watered down' moratorium, the creator has clarified the resolution criteria:
The market will resolve YES if a provision creates a punishment for regulating AI that is so severe it acts as a de facto ban (i.e., no state would realistically pass such regulation).
The market will resolve NO if a provision merely discourages AI regulation.
Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to questions about a 'watered down' moratorium, the creator has clarified the resolution criteria:
The market will resolve YES if a provision creates a punishment for regulating AI that is so severe it acts as a de facto ban.
The market will resolve NO if a provision merely discourages AI regulation (i.e., a 'watered down' version).
Update 2025-06-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A provision will be considered sufficient for a YES resolution if it includes a strong enough discouragement on AI regulation that it effectively results in a 10-year moratorium.
1,000