
Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?
3
70Ṁ72035
54%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11341
my resolution criteria are similar to my question about open source chips https://manifold.markets/Jono3h/will-open-source-chip-development-h , except that the chips should have monitoring capabilities approximately as described in the aforementioned paper.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
xAI announces own ASIC/XPU for AI workloads by March 31, 2026?
32% chance
Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
19% chance
Will a federal moratorium on ~all state level AI regulation be in place at any point before 2030?
34% chance
Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?
24% chance
AI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
12% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance
Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?
81% chance
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
13% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
27% chance
Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
20% chance