Will there be a for-profit interpretability company valued at more than $100M by 2030?
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chance

in order to qualify as an interpretaility company, the company must offer interpretability services, and have secured >25% of its ARR from interpretability contracts or products.

It's okay for the company to have received non-profit funding at first, as long as it's later followed by a round of VC/private for-profit funding.

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By saying that the company must offer interpretability services, are you ruling out an interpretability product? Two things come to mind: a company offering models that are built from the ground up to be interpretable (e.g. neural nets trained to do case-based reasoning using prototypes) or a company offering automated mechanistic interpretability of black box models.

predicts YES

@mariopasquato A product that does automated interpretability counts as interpretability services. A company offering pre-trained interpretable models does not count for this question directly, unless e.g. the company provides the tooling to make models interpretable.

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