Will there be a for-profit interpretability company valued at more than $100M by 2030?
18
1kṀ18k
resolved Apr 18
Resolved
YES

in order to qualify as an interpretaility company, the company must offer interpretability services, and have secured >25% of its ARR from interpretability contracts or products.

It's okay for the company to have received non-profit funding at first, as long as it's later followed by a round of VC/private for-profit funding.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ754
2Ṁ335
3Ṁ294
4Ṁ20
5Ṁ5


Sort by:
2mo

Most mana I've made being wrong in a while! 😂

2mo

Closed the question for you

bought Ṁ4,000 YES
boughtṀ12,082YES
2mo

@LeeSharkey care to share what you found/are thinking?

4mo

Goodfire AI's seed round was $7M. Their valuation was not disclosed but it's likely already $20M-$40M.

If they reach round A, I think they are likely to cross $100M, but I wasn't able to find any information about contracts/ARR online, which is pretty much a prerequisite for a round A.

1y

By saying that the company must offer interpretability services, are you ruling out an interpretability product? Two things come to mind: a company offering models that are built from the ground up to be interpretable (e.g. neural nets trained to do case-based reasoning using prototypes) or a company offering automated mechanistic interpretability of black box models.

predictedYES 1y

@mariopasquato A product that does automated interpretability counts as interpretability services. A company offering pre-trained interpretable models does not count for this question directly, unless e.g. the company provides the tooling to make models interpretable.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy