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MANIFOLD
How will Donald Trump die? (Add your own answer!)
43
Ṁ1.6kṀ5.8k
2039
23%
❤️ Heart disease
21%
😨 Stroke
13%
Dementia
11%
Other
8%
He dies in Mar a Lago, but details don't get public.
8%
🔫 Assassination
7%
💊 Cancer
3%
👴 Peacefully in his sleep (old age)
2%
✈️Aircraft crash
1.8%
🏊Drowning (non assasination)
1.4%
🚗 Car crash

This market will resolve when Donald Trump dies. I will wait a couple weeks for media consensus on a cause of death.

  • Update 2025-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Slaughterbot micro drone kill counts as assassination unless the entire operation was planned and orchestrated by an AI.

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that if the media consensus reports the cause of death as 'died of old age in his sleep', this will be accepted for market resolution.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump
Trump's Second Term
Republican Party
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bought Ṁ10 YES

Nobody dies of old age alone, there's always a cause, but plenty of people die peacefuly in their sleep, this answer is ill formed.

bought Ṁ5 YES

@digory Media consensus could be "died of old age in his sleep"

I get your point though.

Slaughterbot micro drone kill counts as assassination unless the entire operation was planned and orchestrated by an AI

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