Upon hearing that the newly announced steel tariffs have been implemented, I will buy a head of lettuce from a nearby grocery store. I will keep said head of lettuce on my counter indoors. (roughly 70 degrees F/21 degrees C) If the head of lettuce wilts before the steel tariffs are removed, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise, the question will resolve NO.
In the case that the steel tariffs never go into effect or are withdrawn before I go to the store, this will also resolve NO.
I will be the sole arbiter of whether the lettuce has wilted and will not bet on this question.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST): • Tariff Start Date as the Reference: The measurement for lettuce wilting will now be compared to the actual start date when the tariffs begin inflicting economic pain (the effective implementation date), not from when the lettuce was purchased. • Wilting Comparison: The market will resolve YES if the tariffs remain in effect longer than the period it takes for the lettuce to wilt when measured from the tariffs' effective start date. • Asynchronous Measurement Option: If there are objections to this asynchronous timing, the creator is willing to purchase a new lettuce on March 12 to align the measurement period with that date. • Post-March 12 Delay: Any delay in the tariffs being implemented beyond March 12 will lead to a resolution of NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Significant Events Affecting Lettuce Lifespan:
Any significant event that could substantially alter the average lifespan of a head of lettuce will trigger the purchase of a new head of lettuce.
This ensures that if factors beyond preservation technology change the natural wilting period, the measurement period is reset with a new lettuce.
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@Balasar The most fair option is to make a salad right now and await the start date; what if the lettuce available during the implementation of steel tariffs is inferior due to additional agricultural measures put in place?
(I am joking)
@KamyaOjore If substantial changes to lettuce preservation technology occur between now and the new effective start date, I will make sure to renew the lettuce purchase.
@Balasar I am less concerned with the preservation methods of lettuce (though in retrospect that was underspecified, what temperature and humidity is it being stored at? Is it in a plastic bag or paper towels? These are important things to know!) than I am with the clear quality difference between “San Joaquin” lettuce and “Yuma” lettuce that even beginner lettuceheadheads are familiar with. The date range proposed puts us right in the middle of the switchover. Additionally, other nations such as Spain or especially China, could attempt dumping of their inferior lettuce in response to the tariffs.
@KamyaOjore Any significant event that could substantially alter the average lifespan of a head of lettuce will result in the purchase of a new head of lettuce.
@Balasar I'm surprised you aren't taking advantage of existing state of the art lettuce perseveration tech and keep it in the fridge
Since the steel tariffs were announced on Feb 10 but do not go into effect until Mar 12, what is the resolution if the lettuce wilts between Feb 10 and Mar 12 and there are no changes to the tariff announcement? Technically the "steel tariffs never go into effect" but also technically they are not "removed"
@JoshuaHedlund Hmm, I was not aware of this little detail, especially since most articles discussing it seem to elide it. The intention of this market was always to start the clock at the time when the tariffs started inflicting actual economic pain. But I've also already bought the lettuce - so I guess the way this has to work now to best match the preexisting criteria is to only resolve YES iff the tariffs last longer than the time it takes for the lettuce to wilt, starting from the actual start date of the tariffs. If people object to this asynchronous measurement criteria, I will happily buy a new lettuce on March 12th. However, any further delay past March 12th will also lead to a resolution of NO. Sorry for the confusion!
