Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is legally compelled by a court order or other binding legal mechanism to seat Representative-elect Adelita Grijalva, or if a court rules that she may be sworn in by a person other than Speaker Johnson and she subsequently takes the oath of office. This includes any scenario where a court directly orders Speaker Johnson or the House to seat her, or empowers another official to administer the oath against Johnson's wishes.

The market will resolve to "No" if Adelita Grijalva is seated by Speaker Johnson or a designated House official without a direct court order compelling such action, or if all legal challenges attempting to force her seating fail and she is not seated through such means. If she is not seated at all in the 119th Congress, this will similarly resolve NO even if a court eventually rules in her favor.

Sources for resolution will include official announcements from the U.S. House of Representatives, federal court rulings, and reputable news outlets such as The Associated Press, Reuters, or major national news organizations covering the legal proceedings and congressional actions.

Background

Adelita Grijalva was elected as the U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district in a special election on September 23, 2025, to fill the seat left vacant by the death of her father, Raúl Grijalva. Despite her victory, House Speaker Mike Johnson has delayed her swearing-in for an entire month, citing numerous shifting rationales. This delay has prompted Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes to file a lawsuit against the U.S. House of Representatives and its leadership, seeking to compel Johnson to seat Grijalva.