This market will resolve to YES if the following three statements are true:
1. Republicans have lost or will lose the Senate
2. Alito has not left his post.
3. Alito leaves his post by resignation, retirement, or death before the senators are seated.
The market will resolve to NO if the following three statements are true:
1. Republicans have lost or will lose the Senate
2. Alito has not left his post.
3. Alito does not leave his post by resignation, retirement, or death before the senators are seated.
IMPORTANT RULE: If the probability in this market is above 75% at the time of resignation, this will be taken to satisfy the criteria in (1) https://manifold.markets/deleted007/will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU I realize the market says both Houses but the probability of a Dem win in the Senate and a Rep win in the House is negligible.
So for example if the probability in this market is 80% on October 10th and Alito says he will step down, this market resolves YES.
All other cases resolve N/A.
Update 2026-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):
If Alito announces early that he will step down later, resolution is based on the probability of the linked market at the time of announcement
1,000People are also trading
@Balasar I don't think you're the problem, I think I am. Just to check my understanding, let me ask two questions:
1) If Alito retired tomorrow, am I correct in thinking this would resolve N/A, because the election has not taken place AND the linked market is below 75%?
2) What happens if Alito says tomorrow that he will step down between the election and the new senators being seated? Does it resolve NO, because he has announced "he will step down" (as you put it in your clarification at the end of the description) and the Republicans haven't lost the senate yet? Does it remain unresolved until the election and then resolve either YES or N/A? Or does it remain unresolved until the first time the linked market hits 75%?
@kmajc
1) you are correct
2) If he announces early that he will step down later it will resolve based on what the probability was at the time of announcement.
The market is just trying to approximate whether Alito will make a decision about retirement based on political factors that might influence the views of his successor.