Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the weekly U.S. National Average On-Highway Diesel Price reaches or exceeds $5.8159 per gallon (matching the historical all-time high of $5.8159 per gallon set the week of June 20, 2022) on any weekly update published on or before December 31, 2026.

If the reported price does not reach $5.8159 per gallon by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

• Primary source: AAA Gas Tracker

Background

The previous all-time nominal peak for U.S. retail diesel was $5.8159 per gallon, recorded in June 2022 during the global energy shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In 2026, diesel prices surged again due to severe disruptions in global refining capacity, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East affecting supply routes, and drone strikes on Russian refineries. By early September 2026, the national average had climbed back to $5.6879 per gallon, putting the historical record within reach. Diesel is a vital macroeconomic input for shipping, trucking, and agriculture; sustained elevated prices continue to put upward pressure on shipping surcharges and core inflation.