Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the highest daily closing settlement price (in USD per barrel) of the ICE Brent Crude Oil front-month futures contract (globally recognized benchmark) during the period from September 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026.

• Default Benchmark: ICE Brent Crude Oil. If the creator's predefined answer options are explicitly based on NYMEX WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude Oil, the market will instead resolve using WTI front-month futures closing prices.

• Calculation: The resolution value will be the single highest daily close recorded on any trading day within the specified date range. Intraday price spikes are excluded; only daily official exchange settlement/closing prices will count.

• Sources of Truth:

  • For Brent Crude: MarketWatch Brent Crude Futures or CNBC Brent Crude

  • For WTI Crude: MarketWatch WTI Crude Futures or CNBC WTI Crude

• Resolution Rule: The market will resolve to the numeric range/bucket that contains the highest daily closing price achieved during this period.

Background

Oil markets in late 2026 have experienced significant volatility driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Direct hostilities between the United States and Iran, along with threats and retaliatory strikes near critical maritime shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, have reintroduced a substantial geopolitical risk premium.

As of September 2026, Brent crude is trading around $95 per barrel and WTI is trading near $91 per barrel. This follows periods earlier in the year where prices fluctuated due to shifts in OPEC+ production quotas, surging production from non-OPEC+ nations (particularly the U.S. and Canada), and broader macroeconomic concerns regarding global demand.

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