A recent Quinnipiac University poll (https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3884) suggested that 54 percent of Americans are more sympathetic towards Israelis in the ongoing Gaza conflict and 24 percent of Americans are more sympathetic to Palestinians. This yields relative sympathies of 30 percent in favor of Israelis. By how much will this number change in 2024? For resolution, I will try to find a poll from the same pollster that asked an equivalent question near the end of 2024. In the absence of such a poll, I will try to find a poll from a different pollster to resolve the question. Options 2, 4 and 6 include the bounds. The numbers are point change, not percent change, so 26% sympathetic towards Israelis would lead to a resolution of option 4 (less than 5% in either direction).

I will not bet.

• Update 2024-29-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The original resolution source (Quinnipiac poll) does not appear to exist.

  • Alternative sources, such as GlobalAffairs.org, will be used.

  • The resolution is expected to reflect 10-20% more sympathetic towards Palestinians.