This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2030, the United States has formally incorporated Canada and Greenland as part of U.S. territory through any of the following: (1) annexation and statehood, (2) annexation as territories, (3) a binding international agreement transferring sovereignty to the U.S., or (4) military conquest followed by de facto U.S. control recognized by the U.S. government. Resolution requires official U.S. government recognition of territorial control, verifiable through federal legislation, executive orders, or international treaties filed with the UN. The market resolves NO if neither territory is incorporated by this date.

Background

During his second presidency in 2025, Trump has advocated American expansionism and has increasingly asserted that the US must acquire Greenland. Following Greenlandic and Danish refusals to sell the country, Trump has threatened to invade or annex Greenland, which would break international law. Trump has also repeatedly talked of making Canada, one of the United States' oldest and closest friends, into a 51st state. The President and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief's disposal.