Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States meets the definition of a failed state by December 31, 2049. A failed state is one that has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental security and development functions, lacking effective control over its territory and borders, with a government incapable of tax collection, law enforcement, security assurance, territorial control, political or civil office staffing, and infrastructure maintenance.

Resolution will be determined by the Fragile States Index (FSI) published by the Fund for Peace, available at https://fragilestatesindex.org/. The FSI assigns a failure warning to countries scoring between 60-89 and places an alert on countries scoring 90 or higher. The market resolves YES if the U.S. receives an FSI alert designation (score of 90+) or if credible international sources document that the U.S. government has lost control over significant portions of its territory, cannot enforce laws, or cannot provide basic security and services to its population. If the FSI is defunct and/or unable to determine a score, question will resolve as N/A.