If you are interested in giving team forecasting a shot let me know by commenting here and then bet YES because you will be helping me recruit a team!! https://www.infer-pub.com/
I named the team the Clairvoyants, but once we fill out the squad we can nominate news names and vote if the majority is opposed to my choice. I have no sentimental attachment!!
I can be reached by anyone interested through the comments below or at my email briantedwards (a) gmail (.) com
Resolves YES if I recruit at least 10 team members by the end of 2022 at least 5 of which I meet because of this question. Resolves NO if I fail to recruit 10 members or I recruit 10 members not including 5 found directly through this question.
Sep 26, 1:53pm:
Sep 26, 1:53pm:
Sep 26, 3:53pm:
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@MarlonK @OliverS hey guys, would you mind at some point today making one forecast in Infer so we qualify for this month? I was able to get the group to 10 members but all of us have to make at least one forecast per month to count. Only one question has resolved so far that we forecast and it put us in 17th place out of like 50. I would also like to schedule a time for us to meet on Zoom or something in the next couple weeks if we can find a good time for everyone.
@BTE Sorry didn't see this message, added some forecasts now. Is there a discord or location where we discuss stuff or are we using the built in functionality of the infer wesbite?
@OliverS If everyone is cool with Discord I will setup a channel for us to use there. Kinda new to discord but I like it a lot. I will share link here.
@MarlonK Psyched to have you onboard!! I love your idea! Let’s see how experienced our team is with forecasting before setting our Brier Score goal, but opening up our team performance to betting on manifold is a great idea!!
If you have any friends not likely to see this question that you would want to get involved in our Forecast Club feel free to invite them!! Right now, based on the comments here there are three, maybe four people interested in joining. As with most things we should probably try to get 15 commitments if we are gonna guarantee we have 10 minimum.
@BTE Im not sure what it would be tbf. Im still new to this community and am mainly playing because my friend nathan wanted me to!
@Heaffey We are all relatively new so welcome to the fold! I will be sure to keep an eye out to bet on your questions! Try not to let the dopamine hits from the mana tree get you addicted!
@Heaffey You should get in on this forecasting club. We can talk about manifold questions too.
Just set up an account, link above. I think doing this book club style is a good idea -- pick a handful of questions to cover each session. I can probably dedicate an hour or two every other week easily. Might be interesting to compare our pre-meeting judgements with updates post-discussion.
@RobinFoster Fantastic!! Robin is an expert on all things related to the British Commonwealth, including how many aristocrats can cram into really old rooms to do really weird cosplay shit!! Welcome to the team, Robin!!
@BTE Haha, I think I got a bit lucky on that one! Browsing the open questions in infer-pub I don't think UK specific knowledge is going to help much here.
@RobinFoster Definitely love the idea of doing post-mortem analysis. I am going to start a working document for all of us to contribute our ideas and hopefully mid-October we can have our first team meeting.
@OliverS Excellent! All you have to do is create an account and share with me your username. We need to get to 10 to earn the incentive, but we can have as many members as we want I think. I am thinking we can do it like a forecasting 'book club' or something, once a month, every other week, whatever. The questions are all very interesting and they leave it up to forecasters to explain their forecasts before you can submit them.
NOTE: Infer offered me $200/month to put together a team. I would be down to spend all of that on some premium software/apps for the team to use, or even buying $200 of mana to share amongst the team. Just wanted to share the monetary incentive, open to suggestions from future committed team members on how to spend it to help our forecasting.
@MarlonK Terrific! Do you have an account on Infer? https://www.infer-pub.com/ All I need is your username to add you to the team. Also I am open to suggestions on ways to convene for team collaboration. Like Discord, Slack, Google Spaces? I am open to regular zoom meetings too, like a book club but forecasting!