Only storms that reach hurricane strength between Sept 1st-September 30th count. As determined by NOAA.
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3 by 18th is one every 6 days with with 12 days remaining. Perhaps looking fairly quiet other than Nigel already counted, even if there is
Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.That won't necessarily form and even if it does it may not become a hurricane. So I can understand chance being lower than 50% but as low as 5% seems a little low given we are up with the rate required?
@ChristopherRandles Going by ECMWF ACE forecast it’s dropping into October (to become more normal). That 70% for the third storm I’m not sure about since I’ve seen nothing on the 00z GFS forecasts in the last couple days but it can easily miss genesis, but the ECMWF does give it about 85% of becoming a TD and 36% of becoming a TS and 15% of becoming a hurricane, so I think 14% is actually fairly high for this question even though we are 11 days out. The regional models aren’t too impressive either:
So if one reached hurricane strength say 30 August then dropped to tropical storm and re-intensified to hurricane, does that count?
Presumably one system becoming hurricane twice will only count once?
Also, will this work just on 6 hourly and update statements from NHC or is it possible we have to wait for best track that could take months?
@ChristopherRandles Yes that would only count once. And no we won’t wait months for additional data. Day to day assessment or ever six hours as you say is sufficient.
@NicoDelon I also don't know about Franklin (probably doesn't count), which leaves us (for now) with only Lee, potentially Margot, and then whoever's next.
@NicoDelon Franklin was a hurricane on 1st Sept but reached hurricane status first on 26th Aug.
"During" in title suggests yes but "reach" in description is probably no but potentially open to interpretation. Best to get this confirmed.
@ChristopherRandles Yes sorry. Has to reach hurricane status during September. So Franklin won’t count.
